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And Another Thing...

A short, informal line — a thought for the day, a link, or a picture. Nothing here is betting or financial advice.

  • Bet in Play Timer is almost at 10,000 settled forward tested fixtures. The idea is to identify fixtures where the teams historically have slow starts and then explosive scoring patterns. To see if the patterns are predictive...

    30 Apr 2026, 08:55 (UTC)

  • The first week of V2 of an experiment to determine if sacrificing coverage in large fixture days = positive lift in overall win rate? will complete today. Encouraging early signals. Net lift is 1.3pp. The trim in upload is made by requiring a higher min win rate than usual for the league a fixture is in. V1 was entirely shadow. I was so encouraged that for V2 I allowed the forecaster to turn the rule on for production, and I wasn't wrong for the weekend just passed. What can we squeeze out of the model that uploads for StatStrike iOS app? I'm always looking. Other shadow experiments are running to do with aggregate odds, criteria mixes and so on. My suspicion is I will find, over time, that it is the right move to improve model performance on large fixture days. I suspect users of StatStrike will be happy to have fewer fixtures to scroll on a Saturday if they know what they are seeing has a stronger probability of winning? Clearly having a list predominately hard favs is a ROI risk, but given the hot streak potential of the model, accumulators are a go-go for the canny user. I suspect V2 will remain in production on large volume fixture days. Time will tell. Cheers!

    28 Apr 2026, 08:56 (UTC)

  • I have several research applications running largely automated, gathering archives for analysis. I just looked at one of them and found something very interesting (more than one example in archive of this type now). It's a screenshot of the criteria mix (app displays criteria) and forecaster confidence (100%). it seems very successful with a tally of FT matches that is becoming reliable. More consideration needed. The app is maturing...the 80% is the win rate for this mix at that confidence and the mix seems to highlight high scoring games - 71 is the count of games that went over 4 goals...let's dig deeper.

    27 Apr 2026, 13:38 (UTC)

  • This morning I will mostly be thinking about how best to advise a user of StatStrike how to understand the success of the app. It has very good hot streaks. So I must determine the best advice...ie, if the app has been winning consistently in a long run of fixtures, is it best not to take the next forecasts in the list? Until the app has recorded losses that balance out to the expected daily W/L? ie there has been some regression? Is the pattern consistent enough to be useful?

    27 Apr 2026, 11:12 (UTC)

  • This a test post of the new micro-blog function for all that those random thoughts, and a short form diary. So let's include an attractive looking Spanish Segunda fixture coming up tonight to really test it. See how it copes :)

    26 Apr 2026, 17:56 (UTC)